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Jordan vs Syria — Asian Cup 2019

Jordan
Jordan
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Syria
Syria
Tareq Khattab 43'
Musa Al-Taamari 26'
1/10/2019Asian CupAsian Cup · Group Stage - 2Sheikh Khalifa International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Jordan54%
×Draw28%
Syria18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jordan
1.38
Syria
0.67

Jordan creates 106% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

creates per match

Jordan
1.43
Syria
0.33

allows per match

Jordan
1.00
Syria
1.33

finishing

Jordan+0.00on par
Syria+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jordan ↓

Syria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Jordan or draw
82%
Jordan or Syria
72%
Draw or Syria
46%

Winning margin

Jordan wins by 2+
27%
Syria wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Jordan 1+ goals
75%
Jordan 2+ goals
40%
Jordan 3+ goals
16%
Syria 1+ goals
49%
Syria 2+ goals
15%
Syria 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Jordan (draw refunded)
75%
Syria (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jordan at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Syria away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jordan attack 1.43 + Syria defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.38

Syria attack 0.33 + Jordan defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Jordan scores more
54%
level
28%
Syria scores more
18%

Jordan at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Jordan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
Mardig Mardigian
26'
Musa Al-Taamari↳ Yousef Al Rawashdeh
33'
Abdul Malek Anizan
43'
Tareq Khattab↳ Musa Al-Taamari
46'
Mahmoud Al Mawas← Mardik Mardikian
52'
Ahmed Samir← Yousef Al Rawashdeh
70'
Yousef Qalfa← Fahd Youssef
80'
Musa Al Taamari
80'
Jehad Al Baour
82'
Khaled Mobayed← Jehad Al Baour
85'
Ahmed Al-Ersan← Musa Al-Taamari

Possession

35%Jordan

Shots

13Jordan

Statistics

JordanSyria
Overview
35%Possession65%
13Total Shots6
5Corners3
13Fouls13
Shots
13Total Shots6
4On Target3
9Off Target3
Passing
35%Possession65%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
13Fouls13
1Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0
3Offsides1

Match Recap: Jordan vs Syria

Jordan beat Syria 2-0 in Asian Cup on January 10, 2019.

Goals: Musa Al-Taamari (26'), Tareq Khattab (43').

Syria controlled possession (65%) and registered 6 shots to 13.

The match was played at Sheikh Khalifa International Stadium in Al Ain.