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Jordan vs South Korea — Asian Cup 2019

Jordan
Jordan
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
South Korea
South Korea
1/20/2024Asian CupAsian Cup · Group Stage - 2Al Thumama Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Jordan43%
×Draw27%
South Korea30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jordan
1.36
South Korea
1.10

Jordan creates 24% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Jordan
1.40
South Korea
1.00

allows per match

Jordan
1.20
South Korea
1.33

finishing

Jordan+0.00on par
South Korea+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jordan ↓

South Korea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Jordan or draw
70%
Jordan or South Korea
73%
Draw or South Korea
57%

Winning margin

Jordan wins by 2+
20%
South Korea wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Jordan 1+ goals
74%
Jordan 2+ goals
39%
Jordan 3+ goals
16%
South Korea 1+ goals
67%
South Korea 2+ goals
30%
South Korea 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Jordan (draw refunded)
59%
South Korea (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jordan at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

South Korea away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jordan attack 1.40 + South Korea defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.36

South Korea attack 1.00 + Jordan defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Jordan scores more
43%
level
27%
South Korea scores more
30%

Jordan at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Jordan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jordan vs South Korea

Jordan and South Korea drew 2-2 in Asian Cup on January 20, 2024.

The match was played at Al Thumama Stadium in Doha.