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Jordan vs Qatar — Asian Cup 2019

Jordan
Jordan
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Qatar
Qataradvanced
2/10/2024Asian CupAsian Cup · FinalLusail Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Jordan18%
×Draw22%
Qatar60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jordan
0.98
Qatar
1.96

Qatar creates 100% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

Jordan
1.40
Qatar
2.71

allows per match

Jordan
1.20
Qatar
0.57

finishing

Jordan+0.00on par
Qatar+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jordan ↓

Qatar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–210%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Jordan or draw
40%
Jordan or Qatar
78%
Draw or Qatar
82%

Winning margin

Jordan wins by 2+
6%
Qatar wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Jordan 1+ goals
62%
Jordan 2+ goals
26%
Jordan 3+ goals
8%
Qatar 1+ goals
86%
Qatar 2+ goals
58%
Qatar 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Jordan (draw refunded)
23%
Qatar (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jordan at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Qatar away — creates 2.71, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jordan attack 1.40 + Qatar defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.98

Qatar attack 2.71 + Jordan defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Jordan scores more
18%
level
22%
Qatar scores more
60%

Qatar at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Qatar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Asian Cup: Jordan 1–3 Qatar

Qatar beat Jordan 3-1 in Asian Cup on February 10, 2024.

The match was played at Lusail Stadium in Lusail.