Jordan 4–0 Philippines: Result & Stats | Friendlies

Jordan

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Philippines

Ali Olwan 58'

Yazan Al-Naimat 56'

Musa Al-Taamari 26', 9' (pen)

3/28/2023

Friendlies · Friendlies 3Saoud Bin Abdulrahman Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Jordan65%

×Draw23%

Philippines12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JordanExpected goals in this matchPhilippines

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

0.57

Jordan

1.69

Philippines

0.57

Jordan creates 196% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 10 away

1.47

creates per match

0.40

0.75

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Jordan

1.47

Philippines

0.40

allows per match

Jordan

0.75

Philippines

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jordan+0.00on par

Philippines+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jordan ↓

Philippines →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–19%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Jordan or draw

88%

Jordan or Philippines

77%

Draw or Philippines

35%

Winning margin

Jordan wins by 2+

37%

Philippines wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Jordan 1+ goals

82%

Jordan 2+ goals

50%

Jordan 3+ goals

24%

Philippines 1+ goals

43%

Philippines 2+ goals

11%

Philippines 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Jordan (draw refunded)

84%

Philippines (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jordan at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.75 · 32 matches

Philippines away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jordan attack 1.47 + Philippines defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.69

Philippines attack 0.40 + Jordan defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Jordan scores more

65%

level

23%

Philippines scores more

12%

Jordan at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Jordan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

Musa Al-TaamariPenalty

26'

Musa Al-Taamari

56'

Yazan Al-Naimat

58'

Ali Olwan

Statistics

JordanPhilippines

Discipline

1Yellow Cards1