Jordan 1–1 North Korea: Result & Stats | Friendlies

Jordan

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

North Korea

Y. Al Naimat 43'

Unknown 74' (pen)

3/14/2025

Friendlies · Friendlies 3Amman International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Jordan59%

×Draw25%

North Korea16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JordanExpected goals in this matchNorth Korea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

0.69

Jordan

1.61

North Korea

0.69

Jordan creates 133% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 8 away

1.47

creates per match

0.63

0.75

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Jordan

1.47

North Korea

0.63

allows per match

Jordan

0.75

North Korea

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jordan+0.00on par

North Korea+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jordan ↓

North Korea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–17%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Jordan or draw

84%

Jordan or North Korea

75%

Draw or North Korea

41%

Winning margin

Jordan wins by 2+

33%

North Korea wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Jordan 1+ goals

80%

Jordan 2+ goals

48%

Jordan 3+ goals

22%

North Korea 1+ goals

50%

North Korea 2+ goals

15%

North Korea 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Jordan (draw refunded)

79%

North Korea (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jordan at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.75 · 32 matches

North Korea away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jordan attack 1.47 + North Korea defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.61

North Korea attack 0.63 + Jordan defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Jordan scores more

59%

level

25%

North Korea scores more

16%

Jordan at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Jordan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'

Y. Al Naimat

74'

Penalty

Jordan

North

Manager: Jamal Sellami

Manager: Yong-Nam Sin