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Jordan vs Mali — Friendlies 2026

Jordan
Jordan
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mali
Mali
11/18/2025FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Jordan53%
×Draw30%
Mali18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jordan
1.27
Mali
0.61

Jordan creates 108% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 15 away

creates per match

Jordan
1.47
Mali
0.47

allows per match

Jordan
0.75
Mali
1.07

finishing

Jordan+0.00on par
Mali+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jordan ↓

Mali →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Jordan or draw
82%
Jordan or Mali
70%
Draw or Mali
47%

Winning margin

Jordan wins by 2+
25%
Mali wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Jordan 1+ goals
72%
Jordan 2+ goals
36%
Jordan 3+ goals
14%
Mali 1+ goals
46%
Mali 2+ goals
13%
Mali 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Jordan (draw refunded)
75%
Mali (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jordan at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.75 · 32 matches

Mali away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jordan attack 1.47 + Mali defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.27

Mali attack 0.47 + Jordan defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Jordan scores more
53%
level
30%
Mali scores more
18%

Jordan at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Jordan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'
35'

Statistics

JordanMali
Overview
0%Possession0%
3Corners6
5Fouls13
Shots
6On Target5
3Off Target9
0Blocked1
Passing
0%Possession0%
Discipline
5Fouls13
1Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
3Offsides5

Jordan 0 – 0 Mali

Jordan and Mali drew 0-0 in Friendlies on November 18, 2025.