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Jordan vs Lebanon — Friendlies 2026

Jordan
Jordan
FT
0 – 1
Lebanon
Lebanon
Omar Chaaban 77'
9/6/2018FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 3King Abdullah International Stadium (ʿAmmān (Amman))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Jordan50%
×Draw31%
Lebanon19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jordan
1.17
Lebanon
0.60

Jordan creates 95% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 22 away

creates per match

Jordan
1.47
Lebanon
0.45

allows per match

Jordan
0.75
Lebanon
0.86

finishing

Jordan+0.00on par
Lebanon+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jordan ↓

Lebanon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Jordan or draw
81%
Jordan or Lebanon
69%
Draw or Lebanon
50%

Winning margin

Jordan wins by 2+
22%
Lebanon wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Jordan 1+ goals
69%
Jordan 2+ goals
33%
Jordan 3+ goals
11%
Lebanon 1+ goals
45%
Lebanon 2+ goals
12%
Lebanon 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Jordan (draw refunded)
72%
Lebanon (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jordan at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.75 · 32 matches

Lebanon away — creates 0.45, concedes 0.86 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jordan attack 1.47 + Lebanon defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.17

Lebanon attack 0.45 + Jordan defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Jordan scores more
50%
level
31%
Lebanon scores more
19%

Jordan at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Jordan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

58'
Anas Bani Yaseen
71'
Kassem El Zein
77'
Omar Chaaban↳ Rabih Ataya
90'
Obeida Al Samrieh

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Jordan 0 – 1 Lebanon

Lebanon beat Jordan 1-0 in Friendlies on September 6, 2018.

Goals: Omar Chaaban (77').

The match was played at King Abdullah International Stadium (ʿAmmān (Amman)).