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Jordan vs Iraq — Friendlies 2026

Jordan
Jordan
FT
0 – 0
Iraq
Iraq
11/12/2020FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 3The Sevens Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Jordan45%
×Draw30%
Iraq25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jordan
1.21
Iraq
0.82

Jordan creates 48% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 14 away

creates per match

Jordan
1.48
Iraq
0.79

allows per match

Jordan
0.85
Iraq
0.93

finishing

Jordan+0.00on par
Iraq+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jordan ↓

Iraq →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Jordan or draw
75%
Jordan or Iraq
70%
Draw or Iraq
55%

Winning margin

Jordan wins by 2+
20%
Iraq wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Jordan 1+ goals
70%
Jordan 2+ goals
34%
Jordan 3+ goals
12%
Iraq 1+ goals
56%
Iraq 2+ goals
20%
Iraq 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Jordan (draw refunded)
64%
Iraq (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jordan at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.85 · 33 matches

Iraq away — creates 0.79, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jordan attack 1.48 + Iraq defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.21

Iraq attack 0.79 + Jordan defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Jordan scores more
45%
level
30%
Iraq scores more
25%

Jordan at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Jordan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies: Jordan 0–0 Iraq

Jordan and Iraq drew 0-0 in Friendlies on November 12, 2020.

The match was played at The Sevens Stadium in Dubai.