Joondalup City 2–0 Gosnells City: Result & Stats

Joondalup City

FT

2 – 0

Gosnells City

5/24/2025

Western Australia State League 1 · Round 9Iluka Sports Complex A

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Joondalup City60%

×Draw21%

Gosnells City20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Joondalup CityExpected goals in this matchGosnells City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

1.12

Joondalup City

2.10

Gosnells City

1.12

Joondalup City creates 88% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 22 away

1.94

creates per match

0.91

1.33

allows per match

2.27

creates per match

Joondalup City

1.94

Gosnells City

0.91

allows per match

Joondalup City

1.33

Gosnells City

2.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Joondalup City+0.00on par

Gosnells City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Joondalup City ↓

Gosnells City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Joondalup City or draw

80%

Joondalup City or Gosnells City

79%

Draw or Gosnells City

40%

Winning margin

Joondalup City wins by 2+

37%

Gosnells City wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Joondalup City 1+ goals

88%

Joondalup City 2+ goals

62%

Joondalup City 3+ goals

35%

Gosnells City 1+ goals

67%

Gosnells City 2+ goals

31%

Gosnells City 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Joondalup City (draw refunded)

75%

Gosnells City (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Joondalup City at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.33 · 18 matches

Gosnells City away — creates 0.91, concedes 2.27 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Joondalup City attack 1.94 + Gosnells City defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.10

Gosnells City attack 0.91 + Joondalup City defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Joondalup City scores more

60%

level

21%

Gosnells City scores more

20%

Joondalup City at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Joondalup City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff