Jonsered 2–5 Qviding FIF: Result & Stats

Jonsered

FT

2 – 5

HT: 2 – 4

Qviding FIF

R. A. Karlsson 41'

J. Hartwig 8'

T. Persson 52'

M. Eriksson 44'

N. Ahlgren 24', 4'

P. Nyman 13'

8/23/2024

Division 2 - Västra Götaland · Västra Götaland - 18Jonsereds IP 1 Konstgräs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Jonsered37%

×Draw22%

Qviding FIF41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JonseredExpected goals in this matchQviding FIF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.89

Jonsered

1.79

Qviding FIF

1.89

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 59 away

1.67

creates per match

2.05

1.73

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Jonsered

1.67

Qviding FIF

2.05

allows per match

Jonsered

1.73

Qviding FIF

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jonsered+0.00on par

Qviding FIF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jonsered ↓

Qviding FIF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Jonsered or draw

59%

Jonsered or Qviding FIF

78%

Draw or Qviding FIF

63%

Winning margin

Jonsered wins by 2+

19%

Qviding FIF wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Jonsered 1+ goals

83%

Jonsered 2+ goals

53%

Jonsered 3+ goals

26%

Qviding FIF 1+ goals

85%

Qviding FIF 2+ goals

56%

Qviding FIF 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Jonsered (draw refunded)

47%

Qviding FIF (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jonsered at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.73 · 33 matches

Qviding FIF away — creates 2.05, concedes 1.92 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jonsered attack 1.67 + Qviding FIF defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.79

Qviding FIF attack 2.05 + Jonsered defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Jonsered scores more

37%

level

22%

Qviding FIF scores more

41%

Qviding FIF at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Qviding FIF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

N. Ahlgren

8'

J. Hartwig

13'

P. Nyman

24'

N. Ahlgren

41'

R. A. Karlsson

44'

M. Eriksson

52'

T. Persson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff