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Jonkopings Sodra vs United Nordic — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Jonkopings Sodra
Jonkopings Sodra
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
United Nordic
United Nordic
A. Thorsson 50'
M. Baze 27'
P. Abdulla 5'
F. Nieminen Eriksson 75', 17'
2/7/2023Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Jordbrovallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Jonkopings Sodra51%
×Draw25%
United Nordic24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jonkopings Sodra
1.63
United Nordic
1.04

Jonkopings Sodra creates 57% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

Jonkopings Sodra
2.00
United Nordic
1.25

allows per match

Jonkopings Sodra
0.83
United Nordic
1.25

finishing

Jonkopings Sodra+0.00on par
United Nordic+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jonkopings Sodra ↓

United Nordic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Jonkopings Sodra or draw
76%
Jonkopings Sodra or United Nordic
75%
Draw or United Nordic
49%

Winning margin

Jonkopings Sodra wins by 2+
27%
United Nordic wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Jonkopings Sodra 1+ goals
80%
Jonkopings Sodra 2+ goals
48%
Jonkopings Sodra 3+ goals
22%
United Nordic 1+ goals
65%
United Nordic 2+ goals
28%
United Nordic 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Jonkopings Sodra (draw refunded)
68%
United Nordic (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jonkopings Sodra at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

United Nordic away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jonkopings Sodra attack 2.00 + United Nordic defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.63

United Nordic attack 1.25 + Jonkopings Sodra defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Jonkopings Sodra scores more
51%
level
25%
United Nordic scores more
24%

Jonkopings Sodra at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Jonkopings Sodra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
P. Abdulla
17'
F. Nieminen Eriksson
27'
M. Baze
50'
A. Thorsson
75'
F. Nieminen Eriksson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Jonkopings Sodra 3–2 United Nordic

Jonkopings Sodra beat United Nordic 3-2 in Friendlies Clubs on February 7, 2023.

Goals: P. Abdulla (5'), F. Nieminen Eriksson (17', 75'), M. Baze (27'), A. Thorsson (50').

The match was played at Jordbrovallen in Jönköping.