Jonkopings Sodra 1–1 Trollhättan: Result & Stats

Jonkopings Sodra

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Trollhättan

D. Strandsäter 48'

Y. Embaye 39'

8/12/2024

Ettan - Södra · Södra - 17Stadsparksvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Jonkopings Sodra46%

×Draw26%

Trollhättan27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jonkopings SodraExpected goals in this matchTrollhättan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.05

Jonkopings Sodra

1.45

Trollhättan

1.05

Jonkopings Sodra creates 38% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 111 away

1.54

creates per match

1.41

0.70

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Jonkopings Sodra

1.54

Trollhättan

1.41

allows per match

Jonkopings Sodra

0.70

Trollhättan

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jonkopings Sodra+0.00on par

Trollhättan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jonkopings Sodra ↓

Trollhättan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Jonkopings Sodra or draw

73%

Jonkopings Sodra or Trollhättan

74%

Draw or Trollhättan

54%

Winning margin

Jonkopings Sodra wins by 2+

23%

Trollhättan wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Jonkopings Sodra 1+ goals

77%

Jonkopings Sodra 2+ goals

42%

Jonkopings Sodra 3+ goals

18%

Trollhättan 1+ goals

65%

Trollhättan 2+ goals

28%

Trollhättan 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Jonkopings Sodra (draw refunded)

63%

Trollhättan (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jonkopings Sodra at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.70 · 37 matches

Trollhättan away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.35 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.54 + Trollhättan defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.45

Trollhättan attack 1.41 + Jonkopings Sodra defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Jonkopings Sodra scores more

46%

level

26%

Trollhättan scores more

27%

Jonkopings Sodra at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Jonkopings Sodra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'

40'

45'

48'

66'

C. Hellström← L. Lyck

66'

G. Sahlin← I. Ellbring

71'

O. Lennerskog← Y. Embaye

78'

O. Almström← J. Manns

81'

H. Israelsson← D. Strandsäter

83'

M. Berg← I. Shamoun

90+2'

C. Sener

Jonkopings

Trollhättan

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: P. Ingelsten

66'▲C. Hellström←▼L. Lyck

66'▲G. Sahlin←▼I. Ellbring

78'▲O. Almström←▼J. Manns

81'▲H. Israelsson←▼D. Strandsäter

Jonkopings Sodra substitutes

HellströmSahlinAlmströmIsraelssonAzizssonLindgrenShamoun

Manager: N. Wenderyd

71'▲O. Lennerskog←▼Y. Embaye

83'▲M. Berg←▼I. Shamoun

Trollhättan substitutes

LennerskogBergWänblomSternerFabioZupancicSernling

Match Recap: Jonkopings Sodra vs Trollhättan

Jonkopings Sodra and Trollhättan drew 1-1 in Ettan - Södra on August 12, 2024.

Goals: Y. Embaye (39'), D. Strandsäter (48').

The match was played at Stadsparksvallen in Jönköping.

Jonkopings Sodra vs Trollhättan — Ettan - Södra 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Jonkopings Sodra vs Trollhättan