Jonkopings Sodra 0–1 Trollhättan: Result & Stats

Jonkopings Sodra

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Trollhättan

A. Aliev 32' (pen)

3/4/2023

Svenska Cupen · Group Stage - 3Jordbrovallen 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Jonkopings Sodra23%

×Draw24%

Trollhättan53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jonkopings SodraExpected goals in this matchTrollhättan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.67

Jonkopings Sodra

1.00

Trollhättan

1.67

Trollhättan creates 67% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

1.00

creates per match

2.33

1.00

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Jonkopings Sodra

1.00

Trollhättan

2.33

allows per match

Jonkopings Sodra

1.00

Trollhättan

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jonkopings Sodra+0.00on par

Trollhättan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jonkopings Sodra ↓

Trollhättan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–112%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Jonkopings Sodra or draw

47%

Jonkopings Sodra or Trollhättan

76%

Draw or Trollhättan

77%

Winning margin

Jonkopings Sodra wins by 2+

8%

Trollhättan wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Jonkopings Sodra 1+ goals

63%

Jonkopings Sodra 2+ goals

26%

Jonkopings Sodra 3+ goals

8%

Trollhättan 1+ goals

81%

Trollhättan 2+ goals

50%

Trollhättan 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Jonkopings Sodra (draw refunded)

30%

Trollhättan (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jonkopings Sodra at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Trollhättan away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.00 + Trollhättan defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Trollhättan attack 2.33 + Jonkopings Sodra defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Jonkopings Sodra scores more

23%

level

24%

Trollhättan scores more

53%

Trollhättan at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Trollhättan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

32'

A. Eriksson

32'

A. AlievPenalty

46'

M. Nikolić← A. Thorsson

46'

P. Abdulla← M. Baze

47'

F. Delaveris← A. Karlin

70'

E. Forsberg← A. Helm

84'

F. Dzelili

85'

D. Strandsäter← F. Dzelili

89'

O. Edh← A. Malaj

90+1'

90+2'

Jonkopings

Trollhättan

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Andrés García

46'▲M. Nikolić←▼A. Thorsson

46'▲P. Abdulla←▼M. Baze

47'▲F. Delaveris←▼A. Karlin

85'▲D. Strandsäter←▼F. Dzelili

Jonkopings Sodra substitutes

NikolićAbdullaDelaverisStrandsäterLaminBjurnemarkCelic

Manager: Mak Lind

70'▲E. Forsberg←▼A. Helm

89'▲O. Edh←▼A. Malaj

Trollhättan substitutes

ForsbergEdhCarneilWänblomEricssonEriksson-Dorji