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Jonkopings Sodra vs Torns — Ettan - Södra 2019

Jonkopings Sodra
Jonkopings Sodra
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Torns
Torns
8/17/2024Ettan - SödraEttan - Södra · Södra - 18Stadsparksvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Jonkopings Sodra55%
×Draw25%
Torns20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jonkopings Sodra
1.65
Torns
0.90

Jonkopings Sodra creates 83% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 90 away

creates per match

Jonkopings Sodra
1.54
Torns
1.09

allows per match

Jonkopings Sodra
0.70
Torns
1.76

finishing

Jonkopings Sodra+0.00on par
Torns+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jonkopings Sodra ↓

Torns →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Jonkopings Sodra or draw
80%
Jonkopings Sodra or Torns
75%
Draw or Torns
45%

Winning margin

Jonkopings Sodra wins by 2+
30%
Torns wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Jonkopings Sodra 1+ goals
81%
Jonkopings Sodra 2+ goals
49%
Jonkopings Sodra 3+ goals
23%
Torns 1+ goals
59%
Torns 2+ goals
23%
Torns 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Jonkopings Sodra (draw refunded)
73%
Torns (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jonkopings Sodra at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.70 · 37 matches

Torns away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.76 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.54 + Torns defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.65

Torns attack 1.09 + Jonkopings Sodra defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Jonkopings Sodra scores more
55%
level
25%
Torns scores more
20%

Jonkopings Sodra at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Jonkopings Sodra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jonkopings Sodra vs Torns

Jonkopings Sodra beat Torns 3-0 in Ettan - Södra on August 17, 2024.

The match was played at Stadsparksvallen in Jönköping.