Jonkopings Sodra 1–2 AFC Eskilstuna: Result & Stats

Jonkopings Sodra

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

AFC Eskilstuna

M. Nikolic 41'

R. Tihi 79'

A. Coffey 49'

11/21/2021

Superettan · Round 29Stadsparksvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Jonkopings Sodra47%

×Draw25%

AFC Eskilstuna27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jonkopings SodraExpected goals in this matchAFC Eskilstuna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.11

Jonkopings Sodra

1.54

AFC Eskilstuna

1.11

Jonkopings Sodra creates 39% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 77 away

1.51

creates per match

1.03

1.20

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Jonkopings Sodra

1.51

AFC Eskilstuna

1.03

allows per match

Jonkopings Sodra

1.20

AFC Eskilstuna

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jonkopings Sodra+0.00on par

AFC Eskilstuna+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jonkopings Sodra ↓

AFC Eskilstuna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Jonkopings Sodra or draw

73%

Jonkopings Sodra or AFC Eskilstuna

75%

Draw or AFC Eskilstuna

53%

Winning margin

Jonkopings Sodra wins by 2+

24%

AFC Eskilstuna wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Jonkopings Sodra 1+ goals

79%

Jonkopings Sodra 2+ goals

45%

Jonkopings Sodra 3+ goals

20%

AFC Eskilstuna 1+ goals

67%

AFC Eskilstuna 2+ goals

30%

AFC Eskilstuna 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Jonkopings Sodra (draw refunded)

63%

AFC Eskilstuna (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jonkopings Sodra at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.20 · 90 matches

AFC Eskilstuna away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.57 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.51 + AFC Eskilstuna defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.54

AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.03 + Jonkopings Sodra defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Jonkopings Sodra scores more

47%

level

25%

AFC Eskilstuna scores more

27%

Jonkopings Sodra at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Jonkopings Sodra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

M. Marques← M. Degerlund

25'

Robin Tihi

41'

M. Nikolic

49'

A. Coffey

59'

F. Jakobsson← F. Pettersson

62'

Y. Rafael← I. Lushaku

69'

A. Linnér← K. Mammar

77'

E. Omondi← D. Strandsäter

77'

E. Johansson← D. Ljung

79'

R. Tihi

82'

Felix Michel

86'

A. Larsson← V. Götesson

Statistics

JonkopingsAFC

Overview

5Corners5

Discipline

0Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0