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Jong Utrecht vs MVV — Eerste Divisie 2018

Jong Utrecht
Jong Utrecht
FT
4 – 3
HT: 2 – 0
MVV
MVV
11/4/2024Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 13Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 148+ matches

Jong Utrecht43%
×Draw24%
MVV33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jong Utrecht
1.60
MVV
1.37

Jong Utrecht creates 17% more chances

Season form · 149 home / 148 away

creates per match

Jong Utrecht
1.29
MVV
1.07

allows per match

Jong Utrecht
1.67
MVV
1.92

finishing

Jong Utrecht+0.00on par
MVV+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jong Utrecht ↓

MVV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Jong Utrecht or draw
67%
Jong Utrecht or MVV
76%
Draw or MVV
57%

Winning margin

Jong Utrecht wins by 2+
22%
MVV wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Jong Utrecht 1+ goals
80%
Jong Utrecht 2+ goals
47%
Jong Utrecht 3+ goals
22%
MVV 1+ goals
75%
MVV 2+ goals
40%
MVV 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Jong Utrecht (draw refunded)
57%
MVV (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jong Utrecht at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.67 · 149 matches

MVV away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.92 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jong Utrecht attack 1.29 + MVV defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.60

MVV attack 1.07 + Jong Utrecht defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Jong Utrecht scores more
43%
level
24%
MVV scores more
33%

Jong Utrecht at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Jong Utrecht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jong Utrecht vs MVV

Jong Utrecht beat MVV 4-3 in Eerste Divisie on November 4, 2024.

The match was played at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch in Utrecht.