Jong Utrecht 2–3 Emmen: Result & Stats

Jong Utrecht

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Emmen

3/15/2024

Eerste Divisie · Round 30Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Jong Utrecht36%

×Draw25%

Emmen39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jong UtrechtExpected goals in this matchEmmen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.48

Jong Utrecht

1.40

Emmen

1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 149 home / 76 away

1.29

creates per match

1.30

1.67

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Jong Utrecht

1.29

Emmen

1.30

allows per match

Jong Utrecht

1.67

Emmen

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jong Utrecht+0.00on par

Emmen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jong Utrecht ↓

Emmen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Jong Utrecht or draw

61%

Jong Utrecht or Emmen

75%

Draw or Emmen

64%

Winning margin

Jong Utrecht wins by 2+

16%

Emmen wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Jong Utrecht 1+ goals

75%

Jong Utrecht 2+ goals

41%

Jong Utrecht 3+ goals

17%

Emmen 1+ goals

77%

Emmen 2+ goals

43%

Emmen 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Jong Utrecht (draw refunded)

48%

Emmen (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jong Utrecht at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.67 · 149 matches

Emmen away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.50 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jong Utrecht attack 1.29 + Emmen defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.40

Emmen attack 1.30 + Jong Utrecht defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Jong Utrecht scores more

36%

level

25%

Emmen scores more

39%

Emmen at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Emmen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff