Jong Utrecht 3–1 Dordrecht: Result & Stats

Jong Utrecht

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Dordrecht

T. den Boggende 58', 22'

R. El Arguioui 32'

N. Venema 76'

3/20/2026

Eerste Divisie · Round 33Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Jong Utrecht47%

×Draw21%

Dordrecht32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jong UtrechtExpected goals in this matchDordrecht

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.11

1.71

Jong Utrecht

2.11

Dordrecht

1.71

Jong Utrecht creates 23% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

2.27

creates per match

1.50

1.93

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Jong Utrecht

2.27

Dordrecht

1.50

allows per match

Jong Utrecht

1.93

Dordrecht

1.95

+0.23scores more than expected

finishing

-0.50scores less than expected

finishing

Jong Utrecht+0.23scores more

Dordrecht-0.50scores less

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jong Utrecht ↓

Dordrecht →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Jong Utrecht or draw

68%

Jong Utrecht or Dordrecht

79%

Draw or Dordrecht

53%

Winning margin

Jong Utrecht wins by 2+

27%

Dordrecht wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Jong Utrecht 1+ goals

88%

Jong Utrecht 2+ goals

62%

Jong Utrecht 3+ goals

35%

Dordrecht 1+ goals

82%

Dordrecht 2+ goals

51%

Dordrecht 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Jong Utrecht (draw refunded)

60%

Dordrecht (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jong Utrecht at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.93 · 8 matches

Dordrecht away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.95 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jong Utrecht attack 2.27 + Dordrecht defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 2.11

Dordrecht attack 1.50 + Jong Utrecht defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Jong Utrecht scores more

47%

level

21%

Dordrecht scores more

32%

Jong Utrecht at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Jong Utrecht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

T. den Boggende

Jong Utrecht · M

9.0

Match Events

22'

T. den Boggende

32'

R. El Arguioui

36'

Daniel van Vianen

46'

Mica Pinto← J. van Aken

46'

M. Vetkal← A. Darelas

58'

T. den Boggende

60'

Celton Biai

62'

Tijn den Boggende

63'

L. Sunderland← S. Bae

69'

S. Carrillo← R. van Asten

74'

Z. Iqbal← T. den Boggende

74'

N. Beulens← J. van Riel

76'

N. Venema↳ N. Rossi

81'

Jan Plug

81'

L. Edhart← E. Demircan

82'

Nick Venema

84'

Markus Jensen

87'

B. van den Boogaard← S. van der Wegen

88'

S. Ebite← R. El Arguioui

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JongDordrecht

Overview

47%Possession53%

12Total Shots11

1.92Expected Goals (xG)1.93

2Corners8

12Fouls14

Shots

12Total Shots11

7On Target7

2Off Target3

3Blocked1

11Inside Box8

1Outside Box3

Passing

47%Possession53%

385Total Passes421

290Accurate Passes321

75%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

5Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls14

2Yellow Cards4

4Offsides1

Eerste Divisie: Jong Utrecht 3–1 Dordrecht

Jong Utrecht beat Dordrecht 3-1 in Eerste Divisie on March 20, 2026.

Goals: T. den Boggende (22', 58'), R. El Arguioui (32'), N. Venema (76').

Dordrecht controlled possession (53%) and registered 11 shots to 12.

The match was played at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch in Utrecht.

Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht — Eerste Divisie 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eerste Divisie: Jong Utrecht 3–1 Dordrecht