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Jong PSV U21 vs Willem II — Eerste Divisie 2018

Jong PSV U21
Jong PSV U21
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Willem II
Willem II
1/30/2023Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 22PSV Campus De Herdgang

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Jong PSV U2132%
×Draw24%
Willem II44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jong PSV U21
1.37
Willem II
1.64

Willem II creates 20% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 59 away

creates per match

Jong PSV U21
1.67
Willem II
1.68

allows per match

Jong PSV U21
1.59
Willem II
1.07

finishing

Jong PSV U21+0.00on par
Willem II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jong PSV U21 ↓

Willem II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Jong PSV U21 or draw
56%
Jong PSV U21 or Willem II
76%
Draw or Willem II
68%

Winning margin

Jong PSV U21 wins by 2+
14%
Willem II wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Jong PSV U21 1+ goals
75%
Jong PSV U21 2+ goals
40%
Jong PSV U21 3+ goals
16%
Willem II 1+ goals
81%
Willem II 2+ goals
49%
Willem II 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Jong PSV U21 (draw refunded)
42%
Willem II (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jong PSV U21 at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.59 · 147 matches

Willem II away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.07 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jong PSV U21 attack 1.67 + Willem II defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.37

Willem II attack 1.68 + Jong PSV U21 defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Jong PSV U21 scores more
32%
level
24%
Willem II scores more
44%

Willem II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Willem II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eerste Divisie: Jong PSV U21 3–2 Willem II

Jong PSV U21 beat Willem II 3-2 in Eerste Divisie on January 30, 2023.

The match was played at PSV Campus De Herdgang in Eindhoven.