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Jong PSV U21 vs Waalwijk — Eerste Divisie 2018

Jong PSV U21
Jong PSV U21
Preview
18:00
Waalwijk
Waalwijk
4/5/2027Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 32De Herdgang
Big match
39%
Jong PSV U21
model favours
39%23%38%

Waalwijk are unbeaten in 7 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
63%
over 2.5 goals
65%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Jong PSV U2139%
×Draw23%
Waalwijk38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jong PSV U21
1.65
Waalwijk
1.62

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 147 home / 43 away

creates per match

Jong PSV U21
1.67
Waalwijk
1.65

allows per match

Jong PSV U21
1.59
Waalwijk
1.63

finishing

Jong PSV U21+0.00on par
Waalwijk+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jong PSV U21 ↓

Waalwijk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Jong PSV U21 or draw
62%
Jong PSV U21 or Waalwijk
77%
Draw or Waalwijk
61%

Winning margin

Jong PSV U21 wins by 2+
20%
Waalwijk wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Jong PSV U21 1+ goals
81%
Jong PSV U21 2+ goals
49%
Jong PSV U21 3+ goals
23%
Waalwijk 1+ goals
80%
Waalwijk 2+ goals
48%
Waalwijk 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Jong PSV U21 (draw refunded)
51%
Waalwijk (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jong PSV U21 at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.59 · 147 matches

Waalwijk away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.63 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jong PSV U21 attack 1.67 + Waalwijk defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.65

Waalwijk attack 1.65 + Jong PSV U21 defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Jong PSV U21 scores more
39%
level
23%
Waalwijk scores more
38%

Jong PSV U21 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Jong PSV U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Jong PSV U21 score first in only 19% of matches
  • Both teams score in 86% of Waalwijk’s matches
  • Both teams scored in 5 of the last 5 meetings
  • Their last 5 meetings averaged 5 goals
  • Waalwijk outscore their xG (2.4 vs 2.0 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Jong PSV U21
Balanced
Waalwijk
Defensively solid
52%Possession47%
82%Pass accuracy81%
13.3ShotsBiggest gap11.5
1.76xG2.03
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Jong PSV U21Waalwijk

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

3
Jong PSV U21
0
Draws
2
Waalwijk
Avg goals: 5BTTS: 100%
1–43–12–15–32–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
U21
LLWWL
Waalwijk
DDWDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Jong PSV U21 vs Waalwijk — Match Preview

Jong PSV U21 face Waalwijk on April 5, 2027 in this Eerste Divisie fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Jong PSV U21 host Waalwijk at De Herdgang.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.