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Jong PSV U21 vs Jong AZ — Eerste Divisie 2018

Jong PSV U21
Jong PSV U21
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Jong AZ
Jong AZ
11/17/2018Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 14Sportcomplex De Herdgang (Eindhoven)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 147+ matches

Jong PSV U2147%
×Draw23%
Jong AZ30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jong PSV U21
1.82
Jong AZ
1.43

Jong PSV U21 creates 27% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 147 away

creates per match

Jong PSV U21
1.67
Jong AZ
1.27

allows per match

Jong PSV U21
1.59
Jong AZ
1.97

finishing

Jong PSV U21+0.00on par
Jong AZ+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jong PSV U21 ↓

Jong AZ →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Jong PSV U21 or draw
70%
Jong PSV U21 or Jong AZ
77%
Draw or Jong AZ
53%

Winning margin

Jong PSV U21 wins by 2+
25%
Jong AZ wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Jong PSV U21 1+ goals
84%
Jong PSV U21 2+ goals
54%
Jong PSV U21 3+ goals
27%
Jong AZ 1+ goals
76%
Jong AZ 2+ goals
42%
Jong AZ 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Jong PSV U21 (draw refunded)
61%
Jong AZ (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jong PSV U21 at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.59 · 147 matches

Jong AZ away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.97 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jong PSV U21 attack 1.67 + Jong AZ defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.82

Jong AZ attack 1.27 + Jong PSV U21 defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Jong PSV U21 scores more
47%
level
23%
Jong AZ scores more
30%

Jong PSV U21 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Jong PSV U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eerste Divisie: Jong PSV U21 3–1 Jong AZ

Jong PSV U21 beat Jong AZ 3-1 in Eerste Divisie on November 17, 2018.

The match was played at Sportcomplex De Herdgang (Eindhoven).