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Jong AZ vs Jong PSV U21 — Eerste Divisie 2018

Jong AZ
Jong AZ
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Jong PSV U21
Jong PSV U21
3/8/2024Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 29AFAS Trainingscomplex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 148+ matches

Jong AZ45%
×Draw22%
Jong PSV U2132%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jong AZ
1.88
Jong PSV U21
1.56

Jong AZ creates 21% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 149 away

creates per match

Jong AZ
1.70
Jong PSV U21
1.52

allows per match

Jong AZ
1.61
Jong PSV U21
2.06

finishing

Jong AZ+0.00on par
Jong PSV U21+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jong AZ ↓

Jong PSV U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Jong AZ or draw
68%
Jong AZ or Jong PSV U21
78%
Draw or Jong PSV U21
55%

Winning margin

Jong AZ wins by 2+
25%
Jong PSV U21 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Jong AZ 1+ goals
85%
Jong AZ 2+ goals
56%
Jong AZ 3+ goals
29%
Jong PSV U21 1+ goals
79%
Jong PSV U21 2+ goals
46%
Jong PSV U21 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Jong AZ (draw refunded)
58%
Jong PSV U21 (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jong AZ at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.61 · 148 matches

Jong PSV U21 away — creates 1.52, concedes 2.06 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jong AZ attack 1.70 + Jong PSV U21 defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.88

Jong PSV U21 attack 1.52 + Jong AZ defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Jong AZ scores more
45%
level
22%
Jong PSV U21 scores more
32%

Jong AZ at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Jong AZ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jong AZ vs Jong PSV U21

Jong AZ beat Jong PSV U21 4-1 in Eerste Divisie on March 8, 2024.

The match was played at AFAS Trainingscomplex in Wijdewormer.