Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Jong PSV U21 vs Jong Ajax — Eerste Divisie 2018

Jong PSV U21
Jong PSV U21
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Jong Ajax
Jong Ajax
4/17/2026Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 37De Herdgang

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 147+ matches

Jong PSV U2145%
×Draw23%
Jong Ajax32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jong PSV U21
1.85
Jong Ajax
1.54

Jong PSV U21 creates 20% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 148 away

creates per match

Jong PSV U21
1.67
Jong Ajax
1.48

allows per match

Jong PSV U21
1.59
Jong Ajax
2.03

finishing

Jong PSV U21+0.00on par
Jong Ajax+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jong PSV U21 ↓

Jong Ajax →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Jong PSV U21 or draw
68%
Jong PSV U21 or Jong Ajax
77%
Draw or Jong Ajax
55%

Winning margin

Jong PSV U21 wins by 2+
25%
Jong Ajax wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Jong PSV U21 1+ goals
84%
Jong PSV U21 2+ goals
55%
Jong PSV U21 3+ goals
28%
Jong Ajax 1+ goals
79%
Jong Ajax 2+ goals
45%
Jong Ajax 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Jong PSV U21 (draw refunded)
58%
Jong Ajax (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jong PSV U21 at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.59 · 147 matches

Jong Ajax away — creates 1.48, concedes 2.03 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jong PSV U21 attack 1.67 + Jong Ajax defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.85

Jong Ajax attack 1.48 + Jong PSV U21 defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Jong PSV U21 scores more
45%
level
23%
Jong Ajax scores more
32%

Jong PSV U21 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Jong PSV U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jong PSV U21 vs Jong Ajax

Jong Ajax beat Jong PSV U21 1-0 in Eerste Divisie on April 17, 2026.

The match was played at De Herdgang in Eindhoven.