Jong PSV U21 2–2 FC OSS: Result & Stats

Jong PSV U21

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

FC OSS

3/10/2025

Eerste Divisie · Round 31PSV Campus De Herdgang

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 147+ matches

Jong PSV U2147%

×Draw24%

FC OSS29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jong PSV U21Expected goals in this matchFC OSS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.25

Jong PSV U21

1.66

FC OSS

1.25

Jong PSV U21 creates 33% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 148 away

1.67

creates per match

0.90

1.59

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Jong PSV U21

1.67

FC OSS

0.90

allows per match

Jong PSV U21

1.59

FC OSS

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jong PSV U21+0.00on par

FC OSS+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jong PSV U21 ↓

FC OSS →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Jong PSV U21 or draw

71%

Jong PSV U21 or FC OSS

76%

Draw or FC OSS

53%

Winning margin

Jong PSV U21 wins by 2+

25%

FC OSS wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Jong PSV U21 1+ goals

81%

Jong PSV U21 2+ goals

49%

Jong PSV U21 3+ goals

23%

FC OSS 1+ goals

71%

FC OSS 2+ goals

36%

FC OSS 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Jong PSV U21 (draw refunded)

62%

FC OSS (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jong PSV U21 at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.59 · 147 matches

FC OSS away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.65 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jong PSV U21 attack 1.67 + FC OSS defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.66

FC OSS attack 0.90 + Jong PSV U21 defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Jong PSV U21 scores more

47%

level

24%

FC OSS scores more

29%

Jong PSV U21 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Jong PSV U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff