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Jong PSV U21 vs FC OSS — Eerste Divisie 2018

Jong PSV U21
Jong PSV U21
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
FC OSS
FC OSS
2/21/2020Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 27De Herdgang

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 147+ matches

Jong PSV U2147%
×Draw24%
FC OSS29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jong PSV U21
1.66
FC OSS
1.25

Jong PSV U21 creates 33% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 148 away

creates per match

Jong PSV U21
1.67
FC OSS
0.90

allows per match

Jong PSV U21
1.59
FC OSS
1.65

finishing

Jong PSV U21+0.00on par
FC OSS+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jong PSV U21 ↓

FC OSS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Jong PSV U21 or draw
71%
Jong PSV U21 or FC OSS
76%
Draw or FC OSS
53%

Winning margin

Jong PSV U21 wins by 2+
25%
FC OSS wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Jong PSV U21 1+ goals
81%
Jong PSV U21 2+ goals
49%
Jong PSV U21 3+ goals
23%
FC OSS 1+ goals
71%
FC OSS 2+ goals
36%
FC OSS 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Jong PSV U21 (draw refunded)
62%
FC OSS (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jong PSV U21 at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.59 · 147 matches

FC OSS away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.65 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jong PSV U21 attack 1.67 + FC OSS defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.66

FC OSS attack 0.90 + Jong PSV U21 defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Jong PSV U21 scores more
47%
level
24%
FC OSS scores more
29%

Jong PSV U21 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Jong PSV U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jong PSV U21 vs FC OSS

Jong PSV U21 and FC OSS drew 1-1 in Eerste Divisie on February 21, 2020.

The match was played at De Herdgang in Eindhoven.