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Jong PSV U21 vs ADO Den Haag — Eerste Divisie 2018

Jong PSV U21
Jong PSV U21
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
ADO Den Haag
ADO Den Haag
9/16/2024Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 5PSV Campus De Herdgang

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Jong PSV U2134%
×Draw24%
ADO Den Haag42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jong PSV U21
1.48
ADO Den Haag
1.68

ADO Den Haag creates 14% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 95 away

creates per match

Jong PSV U21
1.67
ADO Den Haag
1.77

allows per match

Jong PSV U21
1.59
ADO Den Haag
1.28

finishing

Jong PSV U21+0.00on par
ADO Den Haag+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jong PSV U21 ↓

ADO Den Haag →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Jong PSV U21 or draw
58%
Jong PSV U21 or ADO Den Haag
76%
Draw or ADO Den Haag
66%

Winning margin

Jong PSV U21 wins by 2+
16%
ADO Den Haag wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Jong PSV U21 1+ goals
77%
Jong PSV U21 2+ goals
43%
Jong PSV U21 3+ goals
19%
ADO Den Haag 1+ goals
81%
ADO Den Haag 2+ goals
50%
ADO Den Haag 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Jong PSV U21 (draw refunded)
44%
ADO Den Haag (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jong PSV U21 at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.59 · 147 matches

ADO Den Haag away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.28 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jong PSV U21 attack 1.67 + ADO Den Haag defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.48

ADO Den Haag attack 1.77 + Jong PSV U21 defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Jong PSV U21 scores more
34%
level
24%
ADO Den Haag scores more
42%

ADO Den Haag at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "ADO Den Haag will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eerste Divisie: Jong PSV U21 2–2 ADO Den Haag

Jong PSV U21 and ADO Den Haag drew 2-2 in Eerste Divisie on September 16, 2024.

The match was played at PSV Campus De Herdgang in Eindhoven.