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Jong AZ vs NAC Breda — Eerste Divisie 2018

Jong AZ
Jong AZ
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
NAC Breda
NAC Breda
10/7/2022Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 10AFAS Trainingscomplex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Jong AZ38%
×Draw23%
NAC Breda39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jong AZ
1.61
NAC Breda
1.62

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 148 home / 90 away

creates per match

Jong AZ
1.70
NAC Breda
1.62

allows per match

Jong AZ
1.61
NAC Breda
1.53

finishing

Jong AZ+0.00on par
NAC Breda+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jong AZ ↓

NAC Breda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Jong AZ or draw
61%
Jong AZ or NAC Breda
77%
Draw or NAC Breda
62%

Winning margin

Jong AZ wins by 2+
19%
NAC Breda wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Jong AZ 1+ goals
80%
Jong AZ 2+ goals
48%
Jong AZ 3+ goals
22%
NAC Breda 1+ goals
80%
NAC Breda 2+ goals
48%
NAC Breda 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Jong AZ (draw refunded)
50%
NAC Breda (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jong AZ at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.61 · 148 matches

NAC Breda away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.53 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jong AZ attack 1.70 + NAC Breda defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.61

NAC Breda attack 1.62 + Jong AZ defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Jong AZ scores more
38%
level
23%
NAC Breda scores more
39%

NAC Breda at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "NAC Breda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eerste Divisie: Jong AZ 4–0 NAC Breda

Jong AZ beat NAC Breda 4-0 in Eerste Divisie on October 7, 2022.

The match was played at AFAS Trainingscomplex in Wijdewormer.