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Jong AZ vs MVV — Eerste Divisie 2018

Jong AZ
Jong AZ
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
MVV
MVV
5/3/2024Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 37AFAS Trainingscomplex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 148+ matches

Jong AZ48%
×Draw23%
MVV29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jong AZ
1.81
MVV
1.34

Jong AZ creates 35% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 148 away

creates per match

Jong AZ
1.70
MVV
1.07

allows per match

Jong AZ
1.61
MVV
1.92

finishing

Jong AZ+0.00on par
MVV+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jong AZ ↓

MVV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Jong AZ or draw
71%
Jong AZ or MVV
77%
Draw or MVV
52%

Winning margin

Jong AZ wins by 2+
27%
MVV wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Jong AZ 1+ goals
84%
Jong AZ 2+ goals
54%
Jong AZ 3+ goals
27%
MVV 1+ goals
74%
MVV 2+ goals
39%
MVV 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Jong AZ (draw refunded)
63%
MVV (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jong AZ at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.61 · 148 matches

MVV away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.92 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jong AZ attack 1.70 + MVV defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.81

MVV attack 1.07 + Jong AZ defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Jong AZ scores more
48%
level
23%
MVV scores more
29%

Jong AZ at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Jong AZ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Jong AZ 2 – 3 MVV

MVV beat Jong AZ 3-2 in Eerste Divisie on May 3, 2024.

The match was played at AFAS Trainingscomplex in Wijdewormer.