Jong AZ vs Jong PSV U21 — Eerste Divisie 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 148+ matches
Jong AZ45%
Jong PSV U2132%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Jong AZ creates 21% more chances
Season form · 148 home / 149 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over67
- Under33
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes67
- No33
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Jong AZ ↓
Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Jong AZ at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.61 · 148 matches
Jong PSV U21 away — creates 1.52, concedes 2.06 · 149 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Jong AZ attack 1.70 + Jong PSV U21 defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.88
Jong PSV U21 attack 1.52 + Jong AZ defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.56
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 45%?"
Jong AZ at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 45% does not mean "Jong AZ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Twente
Sparta Rotterdam
Den Bosch
Go Ahead Eagles
FC OSS
Almere City FC
Waalwijk
NEC Nijmegen
Cambuur
Jong Ajax
MVV
Roda
FC Eindhoven
Telstar
FC Volendam
DordrechtJong AZ
Jong Utrecht
Helmond SportIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Jong AZ host Jong PSV U21 on Friday, 20 March 2020 at 00:00. The match is part of the Eerste Divisie 2018/2019 season.
Jong AZ face Jong PSV U21 (Eerste Divisie)
Eerste Divisie returns with Jong AZ hosting Jong PSV U21. Match starts March 20, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.
Jong AZ host Jong PSV U21 at AFAS Trainingscomplex (Wijdewormer).
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.