Jong AZ 3–1 Dordrecht: Result & Stats

Jong AZ

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Dordrecht

8/26/2024

Eerste Divisie · Round 3AFAS Trainingscomplex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 148+ matches

Jong AZ49%

×Draw22%

Dordrecht29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jong AZExpected goals in this matchDordrecht

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.42

Jong AZ

1.90

Dordrecht

1.42

Jong AZ creates 34% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 148 away

1.70

creates per match

1.22

1.61

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Jong AZ

1.70

Dordrecht

1.22

allows per match

Jong AZ

1.61

Dordrecht

2.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jong AZ+0.00on par

Dordrecht+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jong AZ ↓

Dordrecht →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Jong AZ or draw

71%

Jong AZ or Dordrecht

78%

Draw or Dordrecht

51%

Winning margin

Jong AZ wins by 2+

27%

Dordrecht wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Jong AZ 1+ goals

85%

Jong AZ 2+ goals

56%

Jong AZ 3+ goals

29%

Dordrecht 1+ goals

76%

Dordrecht 2+ goals

41%

Dordrecht 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Jong AZ (draw refunded)

63%

Dordrecht (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jong AZ at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.61 · 148 matches

Dordrecht away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.11 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jong AZ attack 1.70 + Dordrecht defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.90

Dordrecht attack 1.22 + Jong AZ defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Jong AZ scores more

49%

level

22%

Dordrecht scores more

29%

Jong AZ at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Jong AZ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff