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Jong AZ vs ADO Den Haag — Eerste Divisie 2018

Jong AZ
Jong AZ
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
ADO Den Haag
ADO Den Haag
10/3/2025Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 10AFAS Trainingscomplex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Jong AZ34%
×Draw23%
ADO Den Haag43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jong AZ
1.49
ADO Den Haag
1.69

ADO Den Haag creates 13% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 95 away

creates per match

Jong AZ
1.70
ADO Den Haag
1.77

allows per match

Jong AZ
1.61
ADO Den Haag
1.28

finishing

Jong AZ+0.00on par
ADO Den Haag+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jong AZ ↓

ADO Den Haag →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Jong AZ or draw
57%
Jong AZ or ADO Den Haag
77%
Draw or ADO Den Haag
66%

Winning margin

Jong AZ wins by 2+
16%
ADO Den Haag wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Jong AZ 1+ goals
77%
Jong AZ 2+ goals
44%
Jong AZ 3+ goals
19%
ADO Den Haag 1+ goals
82%
ADO Den Haag 2+ goals
50%
ADO Den Haag 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Jong AZ (draw refunded)
44%
ADO Den Haag (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jong AZ at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.61 · 148 matches

ADO Den Haag away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.28 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jong AZ attack 1.70 + ADO Den Haag defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.49

ADO Den Haag attack 1.77 + Jong AZ defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Jong AZ scores more
34%
level
23%
ADO Den Haag scores more
43%

ADO Den Haag at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "ADO Den Haag will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eerste Divisie: Jong AZ 0–4 ADO Den Haag

ADO Den Haag beat Jong AZ 4-0 in Eerste Divisie on October 3, 2025.

The match was played at AFAS Trainingscomplex in Wijdewormer.