Jong Aruba 0–4 Britannia: Result & Stats

Jong Aruba

FT

0 – 4

Britannia

10/20/2024

Division di Honor · Round 3Compleho Deportivo Frans Figaroa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Jong Aruba13%

×Draw15%

Britannia71%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jong ArubaExpected goals in this matchBritannia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

2.89

Jong Aruba

1.19

Britannia

2.89

Britannia creates 143% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 67 away

1.11

creates per match

2.22

3.56

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Jong Aruba

1.11

Britannia

2.22

allows per match

Jong Aruba

3.56

Britannia

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jong Aruba+0.00on par

Britannia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jong Aruba ↓

Britannia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–27%

0–37%

0–45%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–29%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–14%

2–25%

2–35%

2–44%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Jong Aruba or draw

29%

Jong Aruba or Britannia

85%

Draw or Britannia

87%

Winning margin

Jong Aruba wins by 2+

5%

Britannia wins by 2+

51%

Team goals

Jong Aruba 1+ goals

70%

Jong Aruba 2+ goals

33%

Jong Aruba 3+ goals

12%

Britannia 1+ goals

94%

Britannia 2+ goals

78%

Britannia 3+ goals

54%

Draw no bet

Jong Aruba (draw refunded)

16%

Britannia (draw refunded)

84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jong Aruba at home — creates 1.11, concedes 3.56 · 9 matches

Britannia away — creates 2.22, concedes 1.27 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jong Aruba attack 1.11 + Britannia defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.19

Britannia attack 2.22 + Jong Aruba defence 3.56 → ÷2 → 2.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Jong Aruba scores more

13%

level

15%

Britannia scores more

71%

Britannia at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Britannia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff