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Jong Ajax vs Roda — Eerste Divisie 2018

Jong Ajax
Jong Ajax
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Roda
Roda
J. Faberski 90+1'
J. Rijkhoff 28' (pen)
N. Chourak 5'
C. Seedorf 8'
12/23/2024Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 20Sportpark De Toekomst

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 144+ matches

Jong Ajax45%
×Draw23%
Roda31%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jong Ajax
1.75
Roda
1.42

Jong Ajax creates 23% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 146 away

creates per match

Jong Ajax
1.90
Roda
1.40

allows per match

Jong Ajax
1.44
Roda
1.61

finishing

Jong Ajax+0.00on par
Roda+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jong Ajax ↓

Roda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Jong Ajax or draw
69%
Jong Ajax or Roda
77%
Draw or Roda
55%

Winning margin

Jong Ajax wins by 2+
24%
Roda wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Jong Ajax 1+ goals
83%
Jong Ajax 2+ goals
52%
Jong Ajax 3+ goals
25%
Roda 1+ goals
76%
Roda 2+ goals
41%
Roda 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Jong Ajax (draw refunded)
59%
Roda (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jong Ajax at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.44 · 144 matches

Roda away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.61 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jong Ajax attack 1.90 + Roda defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.75

Roda attack 1.40 + Jong Ajax defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Jong Ajax scores more
45%
level
23%
Roda scores more
31%

Jong Ajax at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Jong Ajax will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
J. RijkhoffJong AjaxJong Ajax · F
8.5

Match Events

5'
N. Chourak↳ J. Rijkhoff
8'
C. Seedorf↳ R. Leijten
28'
P. Ugwu← A. Bouwman
28'
J. RijkhoffPenalty
65'
L. Jetten← J. Mokio
65'
R. Bounida← J. Rijkhoff
65'
J. Brandes← S. Steur
66'
M. Bangura← N. Markelo
67'
T. Çukur← P. Sejdiu
78'
E. Peña Zauner← J. Müller
86'
Orhan Dzepar
90+1'
J. Faberski↳ R. Bounida

Possession

47%Jong

Shots

13Jong

Pass accuracy

50%Jong

Statistics

JongRoda
Overview
47%Possession53%
13Total Shots17
3Corners8
15Fouls18
Shots
13Total Shots17
8On Target7
3Off Target6
2Blocked4
5Inside Box8
8Outside Box9
Passing
47%Possession53%
392Total Passes424
312Accurate Passes344
80%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
6Saves5
Discipline
15Fouls18
0Yellow Cards1
2Offsides3

Match Recap: Jong Ajax vs Roda

Jong Ajax beat Roda 3-1 in Eerste Divisie on December 23, 2024.

Goals: N. Chourak (5'), C. Seedorf (8'), J. Rijkhoff (28' pen), J. Faberski (90+1').

Roda controlled possession (53%) and registered 17 shots to 13.

The match was played at Sportpark De Toekomst in Amsterdam-Duivendrecht.