Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Jong Ajax vs Jong PSV U21 — Eerste Divisie 2018

Jong Ajax
Jong Ajax
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Jong PSV U21
Jong PSV U21
9/16/2019Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 5Sportpark De Toekomst (Amsterdam-Duivendrecht)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 147+ matches

Jong Ajax49%
×Draw22%
Jong PSV U2129%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jong Ajax
1.98
Jong PSV U21
1.49

Jong Ajax creates 33% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 149 away

creates per match

Jong Ajax
1.91
Jong PSV U21
1.52

allows per match

Jong Ajax
1.46
Jong PSV U21
2.06

finishing

Jong Ajax+0.00on par
Jong PSV U21+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jong Ajax ↓

Jong PSV U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Jong Ajax or draw
71%
Jong Ajax or Jong PSV U21
78%
Draw or Jong PSV U21
51%

Winning margin

Jong Ajax wins by 2+
28%
Jong PSV U21 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Jong Ajax 1+ goals
86%
Jong Ajax 2+ goals
59%
Jong Ajax 3+ goals
31%
Jong PSV U21 1+ goals
77%
Jong PSV U21 2+ goals
44%
Jong PSV U21 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Jong Ajax (draw refunded)
63%
Jong PSV U21 (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jong Ajax at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.46 · 147 matches

Jong PSV U21 away — creates 1.52, concedes 2.06 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jong Ajax attack 1.91 + Jong PSV U21 defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.98

Jong PSV U21 attack 1.52 + Jong Ajax defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Jong Ajax scores more
49%
level
22%
Jong PSV U21 scores more
29%

Jong Ajax at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Jong Ajax will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jong Ajax vs Jong PSV U21

Jong Ajax beat Jong PSV U21 2-0 in Eerste Divisie on September 16, 2019.

The match was played at Sportpark De Toekomst (Amsterdam-Duivendrecht).