Jong Ajax 2–2 Dordrecht: Result & Stats

Jong Ajax

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Dordrecht

1/29/2024

Eerste Divisie · Round 23Sportpark De Toekomst

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 147+ matches

Jong Ajax53%

×Draw22%

Dordrecht25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jong AjaxExpected goals in this matchDordrecht

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.01

1.34

Jong Ajax

2.01

Dordrecht

1.34

Jong Ajax creates 50% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 148 away

1.91

creates per match

1.22

1.46

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Jong Ajax

1.91

Dordrecht

1.22

allows per match

Jong Ajax

1.46

Dordrecht

2.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jong Ajax+0.00on par

Dordrecht+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jong Ajax ↓

Dordrecht →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Jong Ajax or draw

75%

Jong Ajax or Dordrecht

78%

Draw or Dordrecht

47%

Winning margin

Jong Ajax wins by 2+

31%

Dordrecht wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Jong Ajax 1+ goals

87%

Jong Ajax 2+ goals

59%

Jong Ajax 3+ goals

32%

Dordrecht 1+ goals

74%

Dordrecht 2+ goals

39%

Dordrecht 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Jong Ajax (draw refunded)

67%

Dordrecht (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jong Ajax at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.46 · 147 matches

Dordrecht away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.11 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jong Ajax attack 1.91 + Dordrecht defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.01

Dordrecht attack 1.22 + Jong Ajax defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Jong Ajax scores more

53%

level

22%

Dordrecht scores more

25%

Jong Ajax at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Jong Ajax will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff