Jonava 7–1 Pakruojis: Result & Stats | 1 Lyga

Jonava

FT

7 – 1

Pakruojis

9/8/2019

1 Lyga · Round 23Jonavos stadionas prie Neries (Jonava)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Jonava81%

×Draw11%

Pakruojis8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JonavaExpected goals in this matchPakruojis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.81

1.21

Jonava

3.81

Pakruojis

1.21

Jonava creates 215% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 14 away

1.82

creates per match

1.00

1.41

allows per match

5.79

creates per match

Jonava

1.82

Pakruojis

1.00

allows per match

Jonava

1.41

Pakruojis

5.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jonava+0.00on par

Pakruojis+0.00on par

Total goals

Over86
Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jonava ↓

Pakruojis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–13%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–06%

4–18%

4–25%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 73% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

86%14%3.5

71%29%4.5

52%48%

Double chance

Jonava or draw

92%

Jonava or Pakruojis

89%

Draw or Pakruojis

19%

Winning margin

Jonava wins by 2+

65%

Pakruojis wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Jonava 1+ goals

98%

Jonava 2+ goals

88%

Jonava 3+ goals

71%

Pakruojis 1+ goals

70%

Pakruojis 2+ goals

34%

Pakruojis 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Jonava (draw refunded)

91%

Pakruojis (draw refunded)

9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jonava at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.41 · 74 matches

Pakruojis away — creates 1.00, concedes 5.79 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jonava attack 1.82 + Pakruojis defence 5.79 → ÷2 → 3.81

Pakruojis attack 1.00 + Jonava defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Jonava scores more

81%

level

11%

Pakruojis scores more

8%

Jonava at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Jonava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff