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Jonava vs Neptūną Klaipėda — 1 Lyga 2026

Jonava
Jonava
FT
2 – 5
HT: 1 – 2
Neptūną Klaipėda
Neptūną Klaipėda
11/8/20231 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 15Jonavos centrinis stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Jonava37%
×Draw23%
Neptūną Klaipėda40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jonava
1.65
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.73

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 74 home / 79 away

creates per match

Jonava
1.82
Neptūną Klaipėda
2.05

allows per match

Jonava
1.41
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.47

finishing

Jonava+0.00on par
Neptūną Klaipėda+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jonava ↓

Neptūną Klaipėda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Jonava or draw
60%
Jonava or Neptūną Klaipėda
77%
Draw or Neptūną Klaipėda
63%

Winning margin

Jonava wins by 2+
18%
Neptūną Klaipėda wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Jonava 1+ goals
81%
Jonava 2+ goals
49%
Jonava 3+ goals
23%
Neptūną Klaipėda 1+ goals
82%
Neptūną Klaipėda 2+ goals
52%
Neptūną Klaipėda 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Jonava (draw refunded)
48%
Neptūną Klaipėda (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jonava at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.41 · 74 matches

Neptūną Klaipėda away — creates 2.05, concedes 1.47 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jonava attack 1.82 + Neptūną Klaipėda defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.65

Neptūną Klaipėda attack 2.05 + Jonava defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Jonava scores more
37%
level
23%
Neptūną Klaipėda scores more
40%

Neptūną Klaipėda at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Neptūną Klaipėda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jonava vs Neptūną Klaipėda

Neptūną Klaipėda beat Jonava 5-2 in 1 Lyga on November 8, 2023.

The match was played at Jonavos centrinis stadionas in Jonava.