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Jonava vs Kupiškis — 1 Lyga 2026

Jonava
Jonava
FT
2 – 3
Kupiškis
Kupiškis
7/27/20191 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 17Jonavos centrinis stadionas (Jonava)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Jonava41%
×Draw22%
Kupiškis37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jonava
1.91
Kupiškis
1.81

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 74 home / 14 away

creates per match

Jonava
1.82
Kupiškis
2.21

allows per match

Jonava
1.41
Kupiškis
2.00

finishing

Jonava+0.00on par
Kupiškis+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jonava ↓

Kupiškis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Jonava or draw
63%
Jonava or Kupiškis
78%
Draw or Kupiškis
59%

Winning margin

Jonava wins by 2+
22%
Kupiškis wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Jonava 1+ goals
85%
Jonava 2+ goals
57%
Jonava 3+ goals
30%
Kupiškis 1+ goals
84%
Kupiškis 2+ goals
54%
Kupiškis 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Jonava (draw refunded)
53%
Kupiškis (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jonava at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.41 · 74 matches

Kupiškis away — creates 2.21, concedes 2.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jonava attack 1.82 + Kupiškis defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.91

Kupiškis attack 2.21 + Jonava defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Jonava scores more
41%
level
22%
Kupiškis scores more
37%

Jonava at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Jonava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jonava vs Kupiškis

Kupiškis beat Jonava 3-2 in 1 Lyga on July 27, 2019.

The match was played at Jonavos centrinis stadionas (Jonava).