Jonava vs BFA: Preview & Prediction | 1 Lyga

Jonava

Preview

16:00

BFA

10/16/2026

1 Lyga · Round 27

Big match

50%

Jonava

model favours

50%22%27%

Jonava score first in only 8% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

63%

over 2.5 goals

63%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Jonava50%

×Draw22%

BFA27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JonavaExpected goals in this matchBFA

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

1.35

Jonava

1.91

BFA

1.35

Jonava creates 41% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 102 away

1.78

creates per match

1.34

1.37

allows per match

2.04

creates per match

Jonava

1.78

BFA

1.34

allows per match

Jonava

1.37

BFA

2.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jonava+0.00on par

BFA+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jonava ↓

BFA →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Jonava or draw

73%

Jonava or BFA

78%

Draw or BFA

50%

Winning margin

Jonava wins by 2+

29%

BFA wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Jonava 1+ goals

85%

Jonava 2+ goals

57%

Jonava 3+ goals

30%

BFA 1+ goals

74%

BFA 2+ goals

39%

BFA 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Jonava (draw refunded)

65%

BFA (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jonava at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.37 · 73 matches

BFA away — creates 1.34, concedes 2.04 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jonava attack 1.78 + BFA defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.91

BFA attack 1.34 + Jonava defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Jonava scores more

50%

level

22%

BFA scores more

27%

Jonava at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Jonava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

BFA have won 3 in a row
Jonava raise their game against the top half — 41% wins vs the upper half, only 40% vs the lower
69% of BFA’s matches go over 2.5 goals
67% of Jonava’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
37% of BFA’s goals come after the 75th minute