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BFA vs Jonava — 1 Lyga 2026

BFA
BFA
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Jonava
Jonava
I. Paulikas 51'
A. Osipovic 21'
N. Novruzov 90+4'
5/21/20231 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 10BFA Maniežas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

BFA42%
×Draw24%
Jonava34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BFA
1.59
Jonava
1.42

BFA creates 12% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 72 away

creates per match

BFA
1.70
Jonava
1.32

allows per match

BFA
1.51
Jonava
1.49

finishing

BFA+0.00on par
Jonava+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 58Under: 4258%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 60No: 4060%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BFA ↓

Jonava →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

BFA or draw
66%
BFA or Jonava
76%
Draw or Jonava
58%

Winning margin

BFA wins by 2+
21%
Jonava wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

BFA 1+ goals
80%
BFA 2+ goals
47%
BFA 3+ goals
21%
Jonava 1+ goals
76%
Jonava 2+ goals
41%
Jonava 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

BFA (draw refunded)
55%
Jonava (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BFA at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.51 · 101 matches

Jonava away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.49 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BFA attack 1.70 + Jonava defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.59

Jonava attack 1.32 + BFA defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

BFA scores more
42%
level
24%
Jonava scores more
34%

BFA at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "BFA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'
A. Osipovic
51'
I. Paulikas
90+4'
N. Novruzov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

BFA 2 – 1 Jonava

BFA beat Jonava 2-1 in 1 Lyga on May 21, 2023.

Goals: A. Osipovic (21'), I. Paulikas (51'), N. Novruzov (90+4').

The match was played at BFA Maniežas in Vilnius.