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Jonava vs Be1 NFA — 1 Lyga 2026

Jonava
Jonava
FT
1 – 5
HT: 1 – 2
Be1 NFA
Be1 NFA
V. Prado Gutierres 4'
Higor 70', 35'
M. Dziugas 67', 57'
D. Popovici 23'
6/9/20231 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 13Jonavos centrinis stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Jonava38%
×Draw25%
Be1 NFA37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jonava
1.41
Be1 NFA
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 73 home / 68 away

creates per match

Jonava
1.78
Be1 NFA
1.38

allows per match

Jonava
1.37
Be1 NFA
1.04

finishing

Jonava+0.00on par
Be1 NFA+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 53Under: 4753%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 57No: 4357%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jonava ↓

Be1 NFA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Jonava or draw
63%
Jonava or Be1 NFA
75%
Draw or Be1 NFA
62%

Winning margin

Jonava wins by 2+
18%
Be1 NFA wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Jonava 1+ goals
76%
Jonava 2+ goals
41%
Jonava 3+ goals
17%
Be1 NFA 1+ goals
75%
Be1 NFA 2+ goals
40%
Be1 NFA 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Jonava (draw refunded)
51%
Be1 NFA (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jonava at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.37 · 73 matches

Be1 NFA away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.04 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jonava attack 1.78 + Be1 NFA defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.41

Be1 NFA attack 1.38 + Jonava defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Jonava scores more
38%
level
25%
Be1 NFA scores more
37%

Jonava at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Jonava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
V. Prado Gutierres
23'
D. Popovici
35'
Higor
57'
M. Dziugas
62'
D. Slusnys
67'
M. Dziugas
70'
Higor

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jonava vs Be1 NFA

Be1 NFA beat Jonava 5-1 in 1 Lyga on June 9, 2023.

Goals: V. Prado Gutierres (4'), D. Popovici (23'), Higor (35', 70'), M. Dziugas (57', 67').

The match was played at Jonavos centrinis stadionas in Jonava.