Jonava 1–3 Banga: Result & Stats | A Lyga

Jonava

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Banga

M. Ganusauskas 90+2'

I. Venckus 79'

D. Zubauskas 58', 51'

3/19/2022

A Lyga · Round 4Jonavos dirbtinės dangos stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Jonava16%

×Draw22%

Banga62%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JonavaExpected goals in this matchBanga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.82

1.85

Jonava

0.82

Banga

1.85

Banga creates 126% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 110 away

0.32

creates per match

0.87

2.84

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Jonava

0.32

Banga

0.87

allows per match

Jonava

2.84

Banga

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jonava+0.00on par

Banga+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jonava ↓

Banga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–113%

0–212%

0–37%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Jonava or draw

38%

Jonava or Banga

78%

Draw or Banga

84%

Winning margin

Jonava wins by 2+

5%

Banga wins by 2+

36%

Team goals

Jonava 1+ goals

56%

Jonava 2+ goals

20%

Jonava 3+ goals

5%

Banga 1+ goals

84%

Banga 2+ goals

55%

Banga 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Jonava (draw refunded)

21%

Banga (draw refunded)

79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jonava at home — creates 0.32, concedes 2.84 · 25 matches

Banga away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.32 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jonava attack 0.32 + Banga defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 0.82

Banga attack 0.87 + Jonava defence 2.84 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Jonava scores more

16%

level

22%

Banga scores more

62%

Banga at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Banga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

L. Martorell

37'

M. Pinto

46'

I. Venckus← R. Vėževičius

51'

D. Zubauskas

53'

S. Vasquez

53'

R. Paulino

55'

K. Zebrauskas

58'

D. Zubauskas

60'

M. Ganusauskas← L. Martorell

69'

K. Smilingis

71'

M. Bertašius← D. Zubauskas

71'

Jefferson← K. Žebrauskas

72'

T. Eliosius

76'

N. Machado

79'

I. Venckus

84'

Gabriel Brilhante← D. Norvilas

84'

V. Paulauskas← S. Yoshikawa

90+2'

M. Ganusauskas

Jonava

Banga

1

5

3

19

32

▼

Vėževičiu

7

▼

Norvilas

95

Paulino

75

Stočkūnas

11

▼

Yoshikawa

14

▼

Žebrauska

9

⚽2

▼

Zubauskas

16

Matuzas

40

Matheus

22

▼

3

19

90

23

11

20

14

7

Manager: E. Utyra

60'▲M. Ganusauskas←▼L. Martorell

Jonava substitutes

99Ganusauskas5Pope26Neimantas55Stankevičius97Silva47Tapia

Manager: David Afonso

46'▲I. Venckus←▼R. Vėževičius

71'▲M. Bertašius←▼D. Zubauskas

71'▲Jefferson←▼K. Žebrauskas

84'▲Gabriel Brilhante←▼D. Norvilas

84'▲V. Paulauskas←▼S. Yoshikawa

Banga substitutes

37Venckus55Bertašius8Jefferson6Brilhante79Paulauskas21Pliuškys27Kerpė18Srebalius22Petrikas

A Lyga: Jonava 1–3 Banga

Banga beat Jonava 3-1 in A Lyga on March 19, 2022.

Goals: D. Zubauskas (51', 58'), I. Venckus (79'), M. Ganusauskas (90+2').

The match was played at Jonavos dirbtinės dangos stadionas in Jonava.

Jonava vs Banga — A Lyga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

A Lyga: Jonava 1–3 Banga