Jonava 3–2 Babrungas: Result & Stats | 1 Lyga

Jonava

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Babrungas

M. Esperanza 90+4', 48' (pen)

B. Moustapha 67'

R. Martimiano 86'

U. Elivelton 62'

5/27/2023

1 Lyga · Round 11Jonavos centrinis stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Jonava39%

×Draw24%

Babrungas37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JonavaExpected goals in this matchBabrungas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.52

Jonava

1.55

Babrungas

1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 73 home / 80 away

1.78

creates per match

1.68

1.37

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Jonava

1.78

Babrungas

1.68

allows per match

Jonava

1.37

Babrungas

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jonava+0.00on par

Babrungas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jonava ↓

Babrungas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Jonava or draw

63%

Jonava or Babrungas

76%

Draw or Babrungas

61%

Winning margin

Jonava wins by 2+

19%

Babrungas wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Jonava 1+ goals

79%

Jonava 2+ goals

46%

Jonava 3+ goals

20%

Babrungas 1+ goals

78%

Babrungas 2+ goals

45%

Babrungas 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Jonava (draw refunded)

51%

Babrungas (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jonava at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.37 · 73 matches

Babrungas away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.32 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jonava attack 1.78 + Babrungas defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.55

Babrungas attack 1.68 + Jonava defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Jonava scores more

39%

level

24%

Babrungas scores more

37%

Jonava at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Jonava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

48'

M. EsperanzaPenalty

62'

U. Elivelton

67'

B. Moustapha

86'

R. Martimiano

90+4'

M. Esperanza

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff