Jonava 0–2 Atmosfera: Result & Stats | Cup

Jonava

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Atmosfera

A. Kirėjevas 90+2'

B. Pilpani 53'

5/22/2024

Cup · Round of 16Jonavos centrinis stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Jonava4%

×Draw9%

Atmosfera88%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JonavaExpected goals in this matchAtmosfera

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.59

3.34

Jonava

0.59

Atmosfera

3.34

Atmosfera creates 466% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

0.33

creates per match

3.86

2.83

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Jonava

0.33

Atmosfera

3.86

allows per match

Jonava

2.83

Atmosfera

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jonava+0.00on par

Atmosfera+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jonava ↓

Atmosfera →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–17%

0–212%

0–313%

0–411%

1

1–01%

1–14%

1–27%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–00%

2–11%

2–22%

2–32%

2–42%

3

3–00%

3–10%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (13%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Jonava or draw

12%

Jonava or Atmosfera

91%

Draw or Atmosfera

96%

Winning margin

Jonava wins by 2+

1%

Atmosfera wins by 2+

71%

Team goals

Jonava 1+ goals

45%

Jonava 2+ goals

12%

Jonava 3+ goals

2%

Atmosfera 1+ goals

96%

Atmosfera 2+ goals

84%

Atmosfera 3+ goals

63%

Draw no bet

Jonava (draw refunded)

4%

Atmosfera (draw refunded)

96%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jonava at home — creates 0.33, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

Atmosfera away — creates 3.86, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jonava attack 0.33 + Atmosfera defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.59

Atmosfera attack 3.86 + Jonava defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 3.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 88%?"

Jonava scores more

4%

level

9%

Atmosfera scores more

88%

Atmosfera at 88% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 88% does not mean "Atmosfera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'

M. Ogundu

53'

B. Pilpani

64'

R. Ragelis← T. Korsakovas

64'

A. Kirėjevas← M. Ogundu

64'

N. Šrederis← E. Gritkus

71'

S. Asano

71'

D. Stankus← A. Andriejauskas

75'

D. Raulinaitis

78'

R. Macijauskas← D. Raulinaitis

90'

B. Pilpani

90'

J. Ulberkis

90+1'

G. Sabaitis← Oh Se-sim

90+1'

M. Stasys← B. Pilpani

90+2'

A. Kirėjevas

Jonava

Atmosfera

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: E. Utyra

64'▲R. Ragelis←▼T. Korsakovas

78'▲R. Macijauskas←▼D. Raulinaitis

Jonava substitutes

RagelisMacijauskasDrodzMarcinkevičiusSpietinisPetruševičius

Manager: M. Šluta

64'▲A. Kirėjevas←▼M. Ogundu

64'▲N. Šrederis←▼E. Gritkus

71'▲D. Stankus←▼A. Andriejauskas

90+1'▲G. Sabaitis←▼Oh Se-sim

90+1'▲M. Stasys←▼B. Pilpani

Atmosfera substitutes

KirėjevasŠrederisStankusSabaitisStasysJuška