Jonava 7–0 Atmosfera: Result & Stats | 1 Lyga

Jonava

FT

7 – 0

Atmosfera

I. S. Soumah 89'

L. Cepkauskas 79'

M. Ganusauskas 48', 45+1', 33', 24'

D. Raudonius 38'

5/14/2021

1 Lyga · Round 8Jonavos dirbtinės dangos stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Jonava47%

×Draw23%

Atmosfera30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JonavaExpected goals in this matchAtmosfera

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.40

Jonava

1.79

Atmosfera

1.40

Jonava creates 28% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 84 away

1.78

creates per match

1.42

1.37

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Jonava

1.78

Atmosfera

1.42

allows per match

Jonava

1.37

Atmosfera

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jonava+0.00on par

Atmosfera+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jonava ↓

Atmosfera →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Jonava or draw

70%

Jonava or Atmosfera

77%

Draw or Atmosfera

53%

Winning margin

Jonava wins by 2+

25%

Atmosfera wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Jonava 1+ goals

83%

Jonava 2+ goals

53%

Jonava 3+ goals

26%

Atmosfera 1+ goals

75%

Atmosfera 2+ goals

41%

Atmosfera 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Jonava (draw refunded)

61%

Atmosfera (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jonava at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.37 · 73 matches

Atmosfera away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.79 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jonava attack 1.78 + Atmosfera defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.79

Atmosfera attack 1.42 + Jonava defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Jonava scores more

47%

level

23%

Atmosfera scores more

30%

Jonava at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Jonava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

M. Ganusauskas

33'

M. Ganusauskas

38'

D. Raudonius

45+1'

M. Ganusauskas

48'

M. Ganusauskas

79'

L. Cepkauskas

89'

I. S. Soumah

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff