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Jokerit vs HPS II — Suomen Cup 2018

Jokerit
Jokerit
FT
1 – 2
HPS II
HPS II
3/15/2024Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 1st RoundTöölö PK 1 Tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Jokerit7%
×Draw10%
HPS II83%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jokerit
1.00
HPS II
3.56

HPS II creates 256% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Jokerit
1.00
HPS II
2.80

allows per match

Jokerit
4.33
HPS II
1.00

finishing

Jokerit+0.00on par
HPS II+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jokerit ↓

HPS II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–27%
0–38%
0–48%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–38%
1–48%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–24%
2–34%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (8%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Jokerit or draw
17%
Jokerit or HPS II
90%
Draw or HPS II
93%

Winning margin

Jokerit wins by 2+
2%
HPS II wins by 2+
66%

Team goals

Jokerit 1+ goals
63%
Jokerit 2+ goals
26%
Jokerit 3+ goals
8%
HPS II 1+ goals
97%
HPS II 2+ goals
86%
HPS II 3+ goals
67%

Draw no bet

Jokerit (draw refunded)
8%
HPS II (draw refunded)
92%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jokerit at home — creates 1.00, concedes 4.33 · 3 matches

HPS II away — creates 2.80, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jokerit attack 1.00 + HPS II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

HPS II attack 2.80 + Jokerit defence 4.33 → ÷2 → 3.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Jokerit scores more
7%
level
10%
HPS II scores more
83%

HPS II at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "HPS II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: Jokerit 1–2 HPS II

HPS II beat Jokerit 2-1 in Suomen Cup on March 15, 2024.

The match was played at Töölö PK 1 Tekonurmi in Helsinki.