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Joinville vs Pelotas — Serie D 2018

Joinville
Joinville
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Pelotas
Pelotas
11/7/2020Serie DSerie D · Round 11Arena Joinville

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Joinville32%
×Draw33%
Pelotas35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Joinville
0.86
Pelotas
0.91

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 7 away

creates per match

Joinville
1.44
Pelotas
1.29

allows per match

Joinville
0.53
Pelotas
0.29

finishing

Joinville+0.00on par
Pelotas+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Joinville ↓

Pelotas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–116%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Joinville or draw
65%
Joinville or Pelotas
67%
Draw or Pelotas
68%

Winning margin

Joinville wins by 2+
11%
Pelotas wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Joinville 1+ goals
58%
Joinville 2+ goals
21%
Joinville 3+ goals
6%
Pelotas 1+ goals
60%
Pelotas 2+ goals
23%
Pelotas 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Joinville (draw refunded)
48%
Pelotas (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Joinville at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.53 · 32 matches

Pelotas away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Joinville attack 1.44 + Pelotas defence 0.29 → ÷2 → 0.86

Pelotas attack 1.29 + Joinville defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Joinville scores more
32%
level
33%
Pelotas scores more
35%

Pelotas at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Pelotas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D: Joinville 0–0 Pelotas

Joinville and Pelotas drew 0-0 in Serie D on November 7, 2020.

The match was played at Arena Joinville in Joinville, Santa Catarina.