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Joinville vs Cianorte — Serie D 2025

Joinville
Joinville
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Cianorte
Cianorte
Alisson Taddei 45'
Caique 39'
8/3/2025Serie DSerie D · Round of 32Arena Joinville

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Joinville44%
×Draw32%
Cianorte24%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Joinville
1.11
Cianorte
0.73

Joinville creates 52% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 20 away

creates per match

Joinville
1.23
Cianorte
0.85

allows per match

Joinville
0.62
Cianorte
1.00

finishing

Joinville+0.00on par
Cianorte+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Joinville ↓

Cianorte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Joinville or draw
76%
Joinville or Cianorte
68%
Draw or Cianorte
56%

Winning margin

Joinville wins by 2+
19%
Cianorte wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Joinville 1+ goals
67%
Joinville 2+ goals
30%
Joinville 3+ goals
10%
Cianorte 1+ goals
52%
Cianorte 2+ goals
17%
Cianorte 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Joinville (draw refunded)
65%
Cianorte (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Joinville at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

Cianorte away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.00 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Joinville attack 1.23 + Cianorte defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.11

Cianorte attack 0.85 + Joinville defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Joinville scores more
44%
level
32%
Cianorte scores more
24%

Joinville at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Joinville will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'
Caique
45'
Alisson Taddei
Joinville
Cianorte
Hemerson Maria
Manager: Hemerson Maria
Renato Peixe
Manager: Renato Peixe

Serie D: Joinville 1–1 Cianorte

Joinville and Cianorte drew 1-1 in Serie D on August 3, 2025.

Goals: Caique (39'), Alisson Taddei (45').

The match was played at Arena Joinville in Joinville.