Joinville U20 vs Criciuma U20 — Catarinense U20 2026
Catarinense U20 · Round 16
Criciuma U20 are unbeaten in 6 straight
brightest fact of this match
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 26+ matches
Joinville U2030%Criciuma U2042%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Criciuma U20 creates 24% more chances
Season form · 26 home / 29 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under62
- Over38
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No56
- Yes44
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Joinville U20 ↓
Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Joinville U20 at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.31 · 26 matches
Criciuma U20 away — creates 1.14, concedes 0.62 · 29 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Joinville U20 attack 1.35 + Criciuma U20 defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.99
Criciuma U20 attack 1.14 + Joinville U20 defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.23
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 42%?"
Criciuma U20 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 42% does not mean "Criciuma U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Insights
- Joinville U20 score first in only 21% of matches
- Criciuma U20 score first in only 26% of matches
- Criciuma U20 have won 4 of the last 5 meetings
- Criciuma U20 matches are rarely goalless — only 3.2% end 0-0
Based on historical data — not a prediction.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Joinville U20 host Criciuma U20 on Wednesday, 22 July 2026 at 18:00. The match is part of the Catarinense U20 2026/2027 season.
Joinville U20 vs Criciuma U20 — Match Preview
Joinville U20 face Criciuma U20 on July 22, 2026 in this Catarinense U20 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.