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Criciuma U20 vs Joinville U20 — Catarinense U20 2026

Criciuma U20
Criciuma U20
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Joinville U20
Joinville U20
Gabriel Capella 90+2'
Ruan Vitor 66'
Romario 46'
Bidu 32'
Octavio Henrique 17'
4/27/2025Catarinense U20Catarinense U20 · 1st Phase - 4Centro de Treinamentos do Criciúma Esporte Clube

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Criciuma U2067%
×Draw19%
Joinville U2015%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Criciuma U20
2.31
Joinville U20
0.99

Criciuma U20 creates 133% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 27 away

creates per match

Criciuma U20
2.43
Joinville U20
1.33

allows per match

Criciuma U20
0.64
Joinville U20
2.19

finishing

Criciuma U20+0.00on par
Joinville U20+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Criciuma U20 ↓

Joinville U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Criciuma U20 or draw
85%
Criciuma U20 or Joinville U20
81%
Draw or Joinville U20
33%

Winning margin

Criciuma U20 wins by 2+
44%
Joinville U20 wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Criciuma U20 1+ goals
90%
Criciuma U20 2+ goals
67%
Criciuma U20 3+ goals
40%
Joinville U20 1+ goals
63%
Joinville U20 2+ goals
26%
Joinville U20 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Criciuma U20 (draw refunded)
82%
Joinville U20 (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Criciuma U20 at home — creates 2.43, concedes 0.64 · 28 matches

Joinville U20 away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.19 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Criciuma U20 attack 2.43 + Joinville U20 defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 2.31

Joinville U20 attack 1.33 + Criciuma U20 defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Criciuma U20 scores more
67%
level
19%
Joinville U20 scores more
15%

Criciuma U20 at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Criciuma U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'
Octavio Henrique
32'
Bidu
46'
Romario
66'
Ruan Vitor
90+2'
Gabriel Capella

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Criciuma U20 5 – 0 Joinville U20

Criciuma U20 beat Joinville U20 5-0 in Catarinense U20 on April 27, 2025.

Goals: Octavio Henrique (17'), Bidu (32'), Romario (46'), Ruan Vitor (66'), Gabriel Capella (90+2').

The match was played at Centro de Treinamentos do Criciúma Esporte Clube in Criciúma, Santa Catarina.